The academic team

      On the afternoon of March 25th, Dr. Li  Wenlong from the ASEAN China, Japan, and South Korea Macroeconomic Research Office was invited to give a lecture entitled "Macroeconomic Situation and Risk Analysis in China" for the teachers and students in the School of Finance. The report was chaired by Ling Aifan, the vice president of the School of Finance. Teachers and master students listened to the report.

      Li Wenlong analyzed China's macroeconomic trends and risks from the perspective of China's real economy sector, external sectors, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, fiscal revenue, inflation, monetary policy, and overall social debt ratio. At the beginning of the report, Li Wenlong first showed us the nominal and real GDP growth rate in the past ten years and the comparison of the GDP growth rate of each province. He pointed out that after China’s supply-side structural reforms, the growth rate of GDP declined significantly, but in recent years, It stays at around 6.5%. Later, from the perspective of expenditure, he further analyzed the contribution of the “troika” (consumption, investment, and net exports) to the growth rate of GDP, and found that the contribution of China’s consumption to GDP remained stable in the past few years, and investment dropped significantly. The trend is that net exports are volatile but the overall contribution is far less than consumption and investment. Then he analyzed the impact of the three major industries on GDP from the perspective of supply. Later, Li Wenlong analyzed the trade deficit between China and the United States from the point of view of the balance of payments and emphasized that although China's trade with the United States is generally a surplus, service trade has been in a deficit. After analyzing the growth rate of China's GDP and the balance of payments, Li Wenlong made a series of interpretations of the RMB exchange rate, fiscal revenues and expenditures, inflation rate, and social asset-liability ratio, and pointed out the trend and existence of risk in China’s economic development. 

      In the report, Li Wenlong demonstrated the trend of China's macroeconomic development to teachers and students from many aspects. Li Wenlong’s report was structured, organized, and focused so that the students have a better understanding of China’s macroeconomic situation.